This Week’s Market Commentary

April 16, 2012

This week brings us the release of five economic reports that are relevant to mortgage rates, the first being the most important one. It will be posted early tomorrow morning when the Commerce Department releases March’s Retail Sales data. This piece of data gives us a measurement of consumer spending levels, which is very important because consumer spending makes up over two-thirds of the U.S. economy.

Forecasts are calling for a 0.3% increase in sales last month. If we see a larger increase in spending, the bond market will likely fall and mortgage rates will rise as it would indicate consumers are spending more than thought, fueling economic growth. However, a weaker than expected reading could push bond prices higher and mortgage rates lower tomorrow.

March’s Housing Starts is the next report, coming early Tuesday morning. It gives us a measurement of housing sector strength and mortgage credit demand by tracking starts of new home construction and the number of permits issued for future starts. This data usually doesn’t cause much movement in mortgage pricing unless it varies greatly from forecasts. It is expected to show a slight increase in construction starts of new homes. Good news for the bond market and mortgage rates would be a decline in home starts, indicating housing sector weakness.

March’s Industrial Production data will be posted at 9:15 AM ET Tuesday. It gives us a measurement of output at U.S. factories, mines and utilities, translating into an indication of manufacturing sector strength. Current forecasts are calling for an increase in production of 0.2%. This data is considered to be only moderately important to rates, so it will take more than just a slight variance to influence bond trading and mortgage pricing. Signs of manufacturing sector strength are considered negative news for mortgage rates.

Thursday has the remaining two reports scheduled, starting with March’s Existing Homes Sales numbers from the National Association of Realtors at 10:00 AM ET. This report also gives us an indication of housing sector strength and mortgage credit demand. It is considered to be moderately important to the markets, but can influence mortgage pricing if it shows a sizable variance from forecasts. Ideally, the bond market would like to see a drop in home resales because a soft housing sector makes a broader economic recovery difficult. Analysts are expecting to see an increase in sales between February and March. The larger the increase, the worse the news for bonds and mortgage rates.

The final report of the week will also be posted late Thursday morning when the Conference Board releases their Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) for March. This data attempts to measure economic activity over the next three to six months. This is considered to be a moderately important report, so we may see a slight movement in rates as a result of this data. It is expected to show an increase of 0.2%, meaning it is predicting slight growth in economic activity over the next several months. A decline would be considered good news for the bond market and could lead to slightly lower mortgage rates, assuming the housing report doesn’t show a significant surprise.

Overall, it will likely be a moderately active week for mortgage rates. However, unlike many weeks, the most important news comes during the early part of the week. Friday appears to be the best candidate for least active day, but Wednesday may also be fairly quiet. The stock markets will also influence bond trading and mortgage pricing this week as we get more corporate earnings releases. In other words, I expect to see only small changes to mortgage rates, but see them each day. At least once we get past tomorrow’s data.

Common Red Flags for Mortgage Loan Underwriters

April 9 2012

Loan underwriters frequently see red flags that could prevent borrowers from getting a loan. John Ellis, our Senior Vice President, laid out some red flags he frequently sees:

• Borrowers buying properties separately when they are married
• Refinance where the appraised value is significantly higher than the recent acquisition cost
• Frequent employment changes / Recent increase in pay
• Recent undocumented deposits
• Lack of credit history
• Recently issued social security numbers
• Borrowers who have recently purchased other/multiple properties
• Parties in a transaction who share a last name (buyer, seller, Realtor, loan officer, appraiser, escrow officer)

A lot of these are avoidable, so be sure to keep this list in mind when applying for a home loan.

Eccentric Homes Made From Zany Materials

March 27, 2012

Photo: Costa Verda

While traditional homes are at the forefront of most homebuyers’ minds, some homeowners go to extremes by using unconventional material for their homes.

Seen in places all over the world, airplane fuselages have been repurposed into homes. The home on the right uses teak paneling from the cockpit to the tail of this vintage Boeing 727 plane.

Anything goes when it comes to unconventional homebuilding – one artist has created a “luxury” home out of a dumpster in Berkeley, California. Repurposed silos are also common for this type of creation.

To see more wacky homes, read the Yahoo article here.

Homes With Vivid Color Schemes: New Trend?

Most homes are painted subdued colors such as white, grey, and beige. Some homeowners, however, have taken their love of color and infused their houses with it.

While the extreme color schemes are an acquired taste, listing prices certainly speak well for the homes, including a $1.95 million dollar price tag for the North Carolina home pictured above.

Other homes featured in this Yahoo News article have listing prices as high as $14.5 million.
Could you see yourself in a home this colorful?

Can Baby Boomers Boost the Market?

March 14, 2012

Baby Boomers – those between the ages of 47 to 65 – are in the best position to buy real estate that they’ve been in in years, according to a spokesperson for the National Association of Realtors, and could help revive the real estate market.

According to the Housing Affordability Index, affordability is at an all-time high, and many baby-boomers already have solid home equity to rely on.

The spokesperson said in an AOL Real Estate article that “the roadblock is really with first-time buyers… and many of them are being thwarted by credit issues.”

The article cites two major reasons that the baby boomer generation may boost the real estate market: that home equity, and a desire for ease of living factored into their real estate purchases.

A survey done by Met Life Mature Market Institute and National Association of Home Builders showed that 61% of those moving in to a 55+ community cited room layout as a decision-maker, as did 62% of those not moving into such a community, but in non-age-restricted communities. The vast majority of the generation falls in the second category, but the percentages are almost identical.

Room layout and the ease of living asks are not shared as a top priority with younger and first-time buyers.

For more information on how the baby boomer generation may impact the real estate market, read the full article here.

This Week’s Market Commentary

March 5, 2012

This week has four government-compiled economic reports for the markets to digest. Only one is considered to be highly important, but it is a big one. The rest of the reports are moderately important to the markets, meaning they have the potential to affect mortgage rates but usually don’t cause a noticeable change.

The most important data comes the matter part of the week, but sizable moves in stocks can impact bond trading and mortgage rates any day.

The week’s first data comes tomorrow with the release of January’s Factory Orders during late morning hours, which will give us a measurement of manufacturing sector strength. This data is similar to last week’s Durable Goods, except this report covers orders for both durable and non-durable goods. Current forecasts are calling for a drop in new orders of approximately 1.9%. A larger than expected drop would be good news for the bond market and could lead to an improvement in mortgage rates since it would point towards economic weakness.

There is nothing of relevance scheduled for Tuesday, but Wednesday has a couple of releases that are considered moderately important. The first is the revised Productivity index for the 4th Quarter of last year. The preliminary reading posted last month showed an annual growth rate of 0.7% in worker output. Analysts are expecting to see an upward revision of 0.2% to last month’s initial reading. Employee productivity is watched fairly closely because a higher level of output per hour is believed to mean that the economy can expand without inflation concerns. However, since this data is quite aged now, it likely will have little impact on Wednesday’s mortgage rates unless it shows a significant change.

Wednesday also has a couple of private sector employment-related reports due to be posted. The biggest one comes from payroll processor ADP who will announce their change in payrolls processed last month. Since it is not a government agency report, it isn’t considered to be highly important, but as with any employment-related data, it does draw some attention. This is especially true for this report because it is posted just before monthly employment figures are released by the Labor Department.

Thursday has nothing to be concerned with but Friday is a different story. The biggest news of the week comes early Friday morning when one of the single most important monthly reports we see will be posted. The Labor Department will release February’s Employment report at 8:30 AM ET Friday. Some of the important portions of the report will give us the unemployment rate, number of new jobs added or lost and the average hourly earnings reading. The best combination for the bond market and mortgage rates would be an increase in the unemployment rate, a much smaller increase in payrolls than expected and little or no increase in earnings. Current forecasts are calling for no change in the unemployment rate of 8.3% and approximately 207,000 new jobs added to the economy. Stronger than expected readings will likely fuel a stock market rally and selling bonds that would cause a sizable upward revision to mortgage rates. On the other hand, disappointing numbers would raise concerns about the economy’s ability to continue to grow at its current pace that would have an opposite impact on the markets and mortgage pricing.

January’s Goods and Services Trade Balance report will also be released early Friday morning, but it will likely draw little interest from market participants. It will give us the size of the U.S. trade deficit, but often does not directly impact mortgage rates and is the week’s least important piece of news. Current forecasts are calling for a $48.1 billion trade deficit during January, but we will need to see a large variance from this estimate and little surprise in the employment figures for this news to influence bond trading enough to affect mortgage pricing. It is highly likely that this report will be a non-factor in Friday’s pricing.

Overall, look for a fairly active week in the markets and mortgage rates. I suspect there will be some optimism leading up to Friday’s Employment report, which could lead to support in stocks and pressure in bonds as we get closer to Friday. That day is undoubtedly the biggest of the week and we can label Tuesday as the least important. Please be careful this week if still floating an interest rate, especially the latter part of the week.

5 Reasons it’s Time for a Home in 2012

February 29, 2012

It’s true that money can’t buy happiness, but knowing that the value of your assets will grow over time does give you peace of mind.

Negative press is leaving some home buyers stuck on the fence, but here are a few reasons to climb down.

1. In the long run you come out ahead; in the short run you enjoy your home. The paper value of your home won’t rise much in the next couple of years. But if you want a home where you can raise your children or retire for the rest of your life, the paper value will rise significantly, or probably double or triple during that time.

2. The recent survey by the Hartford/MIT Lab’s Home for a Lifetime survey shows that half of all homeowners prefer their current home for retirement. Another 10 percent may choose to retire there, but aren’t yet sure.

3. A home is like a savings account. Your initial costs of home buying will come back to you many times over during the life of your mortgage. Your stake in the home builds every month. You’ll have more than rent receipts in the future.

4. Mortgage payments are fixed; rental payments rise. On a fixed-rate mortgage, you know what your payment will be each month for years to come. (As inflation rises, you’ll be making those payments with less expensive dollars.)

5. Apartment rents through the third quarter of 2010 were up 2.4 percent nationwide for the year and up twice that amount in larger cities. Nice apartments were hard to find because the national vacancy rate is the lowest since 2006, according to a study by real estate research firm Reis, Inc.

There are many more reasons for having a home of your own, reasons that have little to do with the financial aspects.

Stability and community. You get to know the neighbors. Your kids won’t have to change schools. They can keep their friends. You get to know their teachers and which parks, neighborhood facilities and merchants are best for you. Studies show that as people develop positive relationships with neighbors, they have more happiness and less stress.

You get to be the boss. Dealing with a landlord and negotiating repairs are hassles you won’t have to deal with. As the boss of your own place, you can paint, renovate and redecorate as much as you want and in any color or style you want.