This Week’s Market Commentary

November 28, 2011

There are six pieces of economic news that may affect mortgage rates this week. Some of the data is considered highly important to the financial and mortgage markets, so it will likely be an active week for mortgage rates. As the week progresses, the data gets more important.

Unlike most Mondays, there is data being posted this morning with the release of October’s New Home Sales report. It will give us an indication of housing sector strength, but is the week’s least important release. Analysts are expecting to see little change between September’s and October’s sales of newly constructed homes. It will take a large change in sales for this data to influence mortgage rates.

November’s Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) will be released late Tuesday morning by the Conference Board. It gives us a measurement of consumer willingness to spend. If consumer confidence is rising, analysts believe that consumers are more apt to make larger purchases, essentially fueling economic growth. This makes long-term securities such as mortgage-related bonds less attractive to investors and usually leads to higher mortgage rates. Analysts are expecting to see a sizable increase in confidence from last month’s level, meaning consumers were more optimistic about their own financial situations this month than they were last month. A weaker reading than the 44.0 that is expected would be good news for mortgage rates, while a stronger reading could push mortgage rates higher Tuesday.

The next piece of data that we need to be concerned with comes early Wednesday morning when revised 3rd Quarter Productivity numbers are posted. This index is expected to show an upward revision from the preliminary reading of worker productivity. Higher levels of productivity are thought to allow the economy to expand without inflationary pressures rising. This is good news for the bond market because economic growth itself isn’t necessarily bad for the bond market. It’s the conditions around an expanding economy, such as inflation, that hurt bond prices and mortgage rates. Current forecasts are calling for an annual rate of 2.6%, down from the previous estimate of 3.1%.

Also Wednesday, the Federal Reserve will release their Beige Book at 2:00 PM ET. This report, which is named simply after the color of its cover, details economic conditions by region. That information is relied on heavily during the FOMC meetings when determining monetary policy, so its results can influence bond trading and mortgage rates if it shows any significant surprises. More times than not, this report will not influence the markets enough to cause intra-day changes to mortgage rates, but the potential to do so does exist.

November’s manufacturing index from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) will be posted at 10:00 AM ET Thursday. This index measures manufacturer sentiment and can have a considerable impact on the financial markets and mortgage rates. Current forecasts call for a small decline in sentiment from October to November. October’s reading was previously announced as 50.8. A weaker reading than the expected 51.0 would be good news for the bond market and mortgage rates. A reading above 50 means that more surveyed trade executives felt business improved during the month than those who felt it had worsened. The lower the reading the better the news for bonds because waning sentiment indicates a slowing manufacturing sector and makes a broader economic recovery less likely.

The biggest news of the week comes Friday morning when the Labor Department posts November’s Employment figures. This is arguably the most important monthly report we see. It is comprised of many statistics and readings, but the most watched ones are the unemployment rate, the number of news jobs added or lost during the month and average hourly earnings. Current forecasts call for no change in the unemployment rate of 9.0% while 117,000 new jobs were added to the economy. The income reading is forecasted to show an increase of 0.2%. An ideal scenario for mortgage shoppers would be a higher unemployment rate than 9.0%, a smaller increase in payrolls and no change in the earnings reading. If we are fortunate enough to hit the trifecta with all three, we should see the stock markets fall, bond prices rise and mortgage rates move lower Friday. However, stronger than expected readings would likely fuel a stock rally and bond sell-off that would lead to higher mortgage rates.

Overall, the most important day of the week is Friday with the employment figures being released, but we may also see sizable movement in rates Thursday. Friday’s employment data could cause a significant change in rates, but Thursday’s ISM index is also one of the more important reports we see each month. If Friday’s data reveals stronger than expected results we may see rates spike higher after its release, possibly erasing any gains from the week. It will probably be the key to rates moving lower or higher for the week. I suspect it will be a fairly active week for the markets and mortgage pricing, especially the latter part, so it would be prudent to maintain contact with your mortgage professional if still floating an interest rate.

This Week’s Market Commentary

This holiday-shortened week brings us the release of five relevant economic reports for the markets to digest along with the last FOMC meeting’s minutes and two potentially important Treasury auctions.

All of the week’s data is being posted over three days due to the Thanksgiving holiday, so the first part of the week should be interesting for mortgage shoppers.

October’s Existing Home Sales data will be posted by the National Association of Realtors late Monday morning. It gives us a measurement of housing sector strength and mortgage credit demand by tracking home resales. This report is expected to show a decline in sales, meaning the housing sector weakened last month. That would be good news for the bond market and mortgage pricing, but unless it shows a significant surprise, it will likely not have a major impact on tomorrow’s mortgage rates.

Tuesday has the first revision to the 3rd Quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP). It is expected to show little change from last month’s preliminary reading of a 2.5% annual rate of expansion. The GDP measures the total of all goods and services produced in the U.S. and is considered to be the best measurement of economic activity. Current forecasts call for a reading of approximately 2.4%, meaning that there was slightly less economic growth during the third quarter than previously thought. This would be good news for the bond market and mortgage rates, but it will likely take a larger decline to improve mortgage rates Tuesday morning.

Also worth noting is the release of the minutes from the last FOMC meeting Tuesday afternoon. Traders will be looking for any indication of the Fed’s next move regarding monetary policy. They will be released at 2:00 PM ET, therefore, any reaction will come during afternoon trading. This release is one of those that may cause some volatility in the markets after they are posted, or could be a non-factor. If they show anything surprising, we may see some movement in rates Tuesday afternoon, but it is more likely there will be little reaction since Fed Chairman Bernanke held a press conference following the most recent meeting.

There are three monthly reports scheduled for Wednesday morning. October’s Durable Goods Orders is the first and will be posted at 8:30 AM ET. This data helps us measure manufacturing strength by tracking orders for big-ticket items, but is known to be quite volatile from month-to-month. It is expected to show a 1.0% decline in new orders. A larger than expected drop would be considered good news for the bond market and mortgage rates as it would indicate manufacturing sector weakness.

The second is October’s Personal Income and Outlays data. This data measures consumers’ ability to spend and their current spending habits. This is important because consumer spending makes up two-thirds of the U.S. economy. It is expected to show that income rose 0.3% and that spending increased 0.3%. Smaller than expected readings would mean consumers had less money to spend and were spending less than thought. That would be good news for bonds and could lead to improvements in mortgage rates.

The revised November reading to the University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment will be posted late Wednesday morning. It will give us a measurement of consumer willingness to spend. If confidence is rising, consumers are more apt to make a large purchase in the near future, fueling economic activity. Analysts are expecting to see little change to the preliminary reading of 64.2. Unless we see a significant variance from the forecasted reading, I don’t think this data will cause much movement in mortgage rates Wednesday.

In addition to this week’s economic reports, there are two relatively important Treasury auctions that may also influence bond trading enough to affect mortgage rates. There will be an auction of 5-year Treasury Notes Tuesday and 7-year Notes on Wednesday. Neither of these sales will directly impact mortgage pricing, but they can influence general bond market sentiment. If the sales go poorly, we could see broader selling in the bond market that leads to upward revisions in mortgage rates. However, strong sales usually make bonds more attractive to investors and bring more funds into the bond market. The buying of bonds that follows often translates into lower mortgage rates. Results of the sales will be posted at 1:00 PM ET auction day, so look for any reaction to come during afternoon hours.

The financial markets will be closed Thursday in observance of the Thanksgiving Day holiday. There will not be an early close Wednesday ahead of the holiday, but they will close early Friday and will reopen next Monday morning. I suspect that Friday will be a very light day in bond trading as many market participants will be home. Banks have to be open Friday, but we will likely see little change to mortgage rates that day.

Good Schools Mean Fewer Foreclosures?

November 18, 2011

Good school scores may have other benefits than education, according to a recent Wall Street Journal article. Areas with highly ranked schools were shown to have less homes foreclosed upon, a new analysis shows.

The study, done by Location Inc., reviewed six months of 2011 sales data. Foreclosure sales decreased as the school ranking went up in five metro areas, including  Stockton, California and Seattle.

Areas with well-ranked schools also saw less price erosion.  “Higher-rated school districts also maintained higher home-sale prices, and higher home prices per square foot.”

Have you seen similar trends in your area?

Four Fireplace Safety Tips for the Winter

November 10, 2011

With fireplaces and chimneys involved in 42% of home-heating fires, it is important to maintain your fireplace and use it properly during the cold winter months.

Follow these four tips to make sure your fireplace is safe and won’t turn into a fire-starter:

1. Get your chimney professionally cleaned

Hire a chimney sweep to clean out the soot and debris in your chimney. The National Fire Protection Association recommends you do this once a year.

2. Burn the right kind of wood

Burn seasoned hardwoods that are dense, such as oak, that have been split and stored in a dry, high-up place. According to an MSN article, “green wood and resinous softwoods such as pine produce more creosote, a flammable byproduct of combustion that can build up in the chimney.”

3. Don’t overdo it with too many logs
A fire that is too big or too hot can cause a chimney to crack. Small fires create less smoke, and less creosote buildup as a result.

4. Use a spark-guard
Set up a spark guard to prevent embers and sparks from igniting something outside the fireplace. This is especially important when the room the fireplace is in is unoccupied. Glass fireplace doors or a mesh metal screen will do the trick.