This Week’s Mortgage Commentary

This week has an active agenda with seven economic reports scheduled for release that have the potential to influence mortgage rates. There is at least one relevant report scheduled each day this week, making it likely to be an active one for the financial and mortgage markets.

The first release of the week will came today at 8:30 AM ET when September’s Personal Income and Outlays report will be posted. This data gives us an indication of consumer ability to spend and current spending habits. It is important to the markets because consumer spending makes up over two-thirds of the U.S. economy. Rising income generally indicates that consumers have more money to spend, making economic growth more of a possibility. This is bad news for the bond market and mortgage rates because it raises inflation concerns, making long-term securities such as mortgage related bonds less attractive to investors. Analysts are expecting to see a 0.6% increase in income and a 0.4% rise in spending. Smaller than expected increases in both readings would be good news for the bond market and mortgage pricing.

October’s Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) is Tuesday’s only news. This Conference Board index will be released at 10:00 AM ET Tuesday. It gives us a measurement of consumer willingness to spend and is expected to show a small increase in confidence from last month’s 70.3 reading. That would mean that consumers felt a little better about their own financial situations than last month, indicating they are more likely to make large purchases in the near future. As long as the reading doesn’t exceed the forecasted 72.5, we will likely see the bond market react favorably to this report. This data is watched closely because it is related to consumer spending.

The 3rd Quarter Employment Cost Index (ECI) will be released at 8:30 AM ET on Wednesday. This data tracks employer costs for salaries and benefits, giving us an indication of wage inflation pressures. Rapidly rising costs raises wage inflation concerns and may hurt bond prices. It is expected to show an increase in costs of 0.5%. A smaller than expected increase would be good news for mortgage rates, but this is not one of the more important reports of the week. Therefore, it will likely take a large variance from forecasts for this report of have a noticeable influence on mortgage pricing.

Thursday has two relevant economic reports scheduled for release. The first is the 3rd Quarter Productivity reading at 8:30 AM ET. It is expected to show a 1.6% increase in worker productivity during the third quarter. A larger increase would be good news for the bond market because higher levels of employee productivity allow the economy to expand without inflationary pressures being a concern.

The key data of the day and one of the two highly important reports of the week will be the Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) manufacturing index at 10:00 AM ET Thursday. This index measures manufacturer sentiment, which is important because it gives us an indication of manufacturing sector strength. It is considered to be one of the more important reports we see each month, partly because it is the first report every month that tracks the preceding month’s activity. Thursday’s release is expected to show a reading of 51.0, indicating that manufacturer sentiment slipped from September’s level. This means fewer surveyed business executives felt business improved during the month than in September, hinting at manufacturing sector weakness. A smaller than expected reading would be good news for bonds and mortgage rates, especially if it falls below the benchmark 50.0.

Friday brings us the release of two pieces of economic data, one of which is arguably the single most important monthly report. The Labor Department will post October’s Employment report early Friday morning. This report is comprised of many statistics and readings, but the most important ones are the unemployment rate, the number of new jobs added or lost during the month and average hourly earnings. Current forecasts call for the unemployment rate to move higher by 0.1% to 7.9%, an increase in payrolls of approximately 125,000 and a 0.2% increase in average earnings. Weaker than expected readings should renew concerns about the labor market and rally bonds enough to improve mortgage rates, especially if the stock markets react poorly to the news. On the other hand, if the report indicates employment sector strength, we could see mortgage rates spike higher Friday morning.

The second report of the day will be September’s Factory Orders data. This report is similar to last week’s Durable Goods Orders release except it includes orders for both durable and non-durable goods. It is expected to show a 4.5% increase in new orders from August’s level. A smaller than forecasted increase would be good news for the bond market and mortgage rates while a larger than expected rise is bad news and could contribute to higher mortgage pricing since it would indicate economic strength. It is worth noting though, that the Employment report is much more important to the financial and mortgage markets than this data is.

Overall, the single most important day is likely to be Thursday or Friday. In addition to the economic reports, I believe stocks will experience volatility that will also impact bond trading. The key to the week will be Friday’s employment numbers, but any significant swings in the stock markets may also influence whether mortgage rates close the week higher or lower than Monday morning’s levels.

This Week’s Market Commentary

This week brings us the release of six economic reports for the markets to digest. Unlike last week, the most important events are scheduled for the first part of the week while the latter part is much lighter. However, due to stock earnings along with the week’s economic news, we could see mortgage rates move several days with a decent possibility of seeing an intra-day revision or two.

The week kicks off with the release of an extremely important piece of economic data early Monday morning. September’s Retail Sales report that measures consumer spending will be posted at 8:30 AM ET Monday. This data is very important to the markets because consumer spending makes up over two-thirds of the U.S. economy. Therefore, any related data is considered to be highly important. If we see weaker than expected readings in this report, the bond market should respond favorably and mortgage rates should drop Monday. However, stronger than expected sales would fuel optimism about the economy and would likely lead to a stock rally that hurts bonds prices and pushes mortgage rates higher. Current forecasts are calling for a 0.7% increase in sales. Good news for the bond market and mortgage pricing would be a much smaller increase.

Tuesday has two reports scheduled that may influence mortgage rates. The first is September’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) at 8:30 AM ET. It measures inflationary pressures at the very important consumer level of the economy and is one of the most important reports that the bond market gets each month. Analysts are expecting to see a rise of 0.5% in the overall index and an increase of 0.2% in the core data reading. A larger than expected increase in the core reading could raise inflation concerns, pushing bond prices lower and mortgage rates higher. Inflation is the number one nemesis of the bond market because it erodes the value of a bond’s future fixed interest payments. When inflation is a threat, even down the road, bonds sell for discounted prices that push their yields higher. And since mortgage rates tend to follow bond yields, this leads to higher rates for mortgage borrowers.

The second report of the day will be September’s Industrial Production data at 9:15 AM ET, giving us an indication of manufacturing strength by tracking output at U.S. factories, mines and utilities. It is expected to show a 0.2% increase in output from August’s level, meaning that manufacturing activity rose slightly. A larger than expected increase in production would be negative for bonds and mortgage rates as it would indicate economic strength. A decline in output would be favorable for the bond market and mortgage rates, but the CPI is much more influential to the markets than this report is and will be the focus of trading Tuesday morning.

September’s Housing Starts is Wednesday’s only release, coming at 8:30 AM ET. This report will probably not have much of an impact on the bond market or mortgage rates. It gives us a measurement of housing sector strength and mortgage credit demand by tracking construction starts of new homes, but is usually considered to be of low importance to the financial and mortgage markets. It is expected to show an increase in new home starts between August and September. I believe we need to see a significant surprise in this data for it to have an impact on mortgage rates Wednesday.

Thursday also has only a single monthly report scheduled for release with September’s Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) at 10:00 AM ET. This index attempts to measure future economic activity, particularly during the next three to six months. Current forecasts are calling for an increase of 0.2% from August’s reading. This would indicate that economic activity is likely to increase slightly over the next couple of months. That would be relatively bad news for the bond market and mortgage rates, but this report is considered to be only moderately important. Therefore, a small increase would not be of much concern to the bond and mortgage markets. Ideally, we would like to see a decline in the index.

The National Association of Realtors will release September’s Existing Home Sales data late Friday morning. This report gives us an indication of housing sector strength and mortgage credit demand by tracking home resales. I don’t see it having much of an influence on the bond market or mortgage rates, but a reading that varies greatly from analysts’ forecasts could lead to a slight change in mortgage pricing. It is expected to show a decline in sales from August to September, meaning the housing sector remained soft. That would be favorable news for the bond market since a weak housing sector makes a broader economic recovery less likely.

Overall, it appears that Monday or Tuesday are the likely candidates for the most important day of the week. In addition to the economic data, there are many companies posting earning reports during the week, including some big names such as Citigroup, IBM and Intel. If the corporate earnings releases are generally weaker than forecasts, stocks may suffer, making bonds more appealing to investors. The end result would likely be an improvement in rates. The flip side though is stronger than expected earnings that drive stocks higher, pushing bond prices lower and mortgage rates upward. Accordingly, please maintain contact with your mortgage professional if still floating an interest rate.

Storing your outdoor items for Winter

Today we have part 2 of our 4 part series on preparing your home for Winter.

Here in Northern California, we can get some pretty strong winds with our rain. To take good care of our patio furniture and our barbecues, we need to prepare and to store them properly so we don’t have to buy new furniture and grills in the Spring.

Barbecues and Grills

We won’t get into the debate over gas versus charcoal (or smokers, for that matter). We’ll save that for the Spring. Whatever you have, let’s get it safe and secure before the big Northern California rains in November.

If you have a portable charcoal kettle or gas grill, you may want to find room in your garage or car port to store it over the winter where it will be protected from rust. If you live in an apartment and have covered parking, you might be able to fit yours in between the wall and where your car bumper normally stops.
Don’t use it here, though, as there’s a potential for fire or carbon monoxide poisoning.

To prepare your portable grill:

1. Clean completely. Get some oven cleaner and really spray down the grill part. While it’s doing its job, clean out any ash if charcoal, or clean the burners if you have gas. Throw out lava rocks for a gas grill and plan to buying new ones in the Spring. Grease can get stuck in the rocks which you’re never going to get cleaned out. And clean rocks reduce flare ups which provides a better flavor. Hose off the grill, and enjoy it’s bright shiny look.
2. Dry your grill completely to ensure there’s no rust. If there is rust, use steel wool or a wire brush to get it off, and then look if you need to re-coat the surface. You can polish the surface with a simple paste of baking soda and water.
3. Repair anything needing repairing. Nothing is worse then the first sunny day in April, pulling out the grill, and finding out that you needed to fix a burner.
4. Detach propane tanks if you have a gas grill. Make certain to store them safely in an upright position.
5. Read your manual to see if the manufacturer recommends anything specifically. If you can’t find your manual, many companies now put them online. Usually you can find this in Support.

Now put your grill buddy in a safe place. As we mentioned, if it can fit in the garage or carport, that’s the best place. If you can’t, look for an area where there’s an overhang to protect it as much as possible. And invest in a good cover. Make sure you tie down the cover so it doesn’t blow away.

If you have a built in grill, or a large island grill, barbecue or smoker, spend just as much time cleaning, reviewing your manual, and use the covers.

Some of you are able to grill almost all year round (Carmel, Monterey, Silicon Valley…). That doesn’t mean you can get out of doing a little cleaning and maintenance twice a year. Your grill will be so happy if you do. Leave a note in the comments where you are and if you can grill, barbecue or smoke all year.

Patio furniture

Some people have sheds for their patio furniture since they don’t want to spare the room in their garage. If you invested good money in chairs, tables, heaters, canopies and outdoor fireplaces, you will want to take care of them for the long term. Similar to grills, the steps are:

1. Clean off the pillows and umbrellas. Then store indoors. Some people like to put the pillows into large garbage bags to prevent dust from accumulating.
2. Clean all the dirt and grime off of the furniture. If you have wood furniture, consider using some wood soap, or a coating of water sealant.
3. Inspect for any repairs needed on all the parts. If you need a new cord on your umbrellas, order them now so you can repair it before you put it away.
4. Stack lightweight chairs on top of one another. If you can store them indoors like a garage, carport or shed, that’s your best bet. Otherwise the additional weight will keep them in place if a strong wind storm starts to blow. Find a cover to go over them to protect the chairs from the elements.
5. Store lightweight tables indoors. Again if this is not possible, put a cover over, and try to store in an overhang or an area where the wind won’t blow the stacks over.
6. Tie down all covers so they don’t blow away.

No matter how you store your outdoor items, make sure you keep your eyes peeled for spiders when you pull them out in the Spring.

When will you hold your final outdoor party before you put everything away for the season?

Fall Maintenance from Top to Bottom

Now that we’ve passed the Autumnal Equinox, it’s time to start thinking about preparing you home for the winter. We’re going to post a four part series focusing on:

1. Cleaning your gutters and checking the foundation
2. Storing your outdoor furniture and bbq
3. Preparing your plants and sprinklers
4. Keeping your heating happy and running strong all winter long

Clean your gutters

You might think you should wait to clean your gutters until after all of the leaves have fallen. However, you’re better off cleaning them a few times during the autumn season to prevent major blockages in the downspouts, as well as ensuring that there is no damage to the gutters caused by falling branches.

You should be able to use a good ladder for single story, but you’ll need a really tall ladder and a good friend to spot you if you’re going up higher than that. When you’re up on the roof, look for loose shingles, and look for cracks in the masonry around your fireplace.

As you’re cleaning, look for cracks and rust in the gutters that should be repaired or even replaced.
Finally use a hose to clear debris from the downspouts. To make maintenance faster and easier, consider investing in leaf guards for your gutters to reduce the leaves that get stuck.

Lowe’s has a wonderful article here with graphics to show you where to look for rust points.

Their advice for cleaning gutters is:
You may encounter stubborn, caked buildups. If so, they may be more easily removed a little while after a rain when they are damp instead of dry and hard. Of course, you can always create your own rain with a water hose, but resist the urge to clean your gutters with water pressure. It seems like it would be so easy, but you might pack debris tightly into the downspouts, and dirty water might splash all over your house.

Inspect your gutters as you clean. Look for corrosion, holes, leaking joints or loose, missing or bent hangers. Mark problem areas with masking tape so you can find the problem spots quickly when you are ready to do the repairs.

Wear gloves to protect yourself from scratches, and have handy a garden trowel or gutter scoop, a whisk broom and a rag. Put your tools in a bucket with a handle. The bucket should be fastened to your ladder with a wire hook. This will prevent you from having to juggle a lot of tools while climbing or descending the ladder. It will also remove the temptation of stuffing tools into your pockets – a hazard if you should happen to fall.

It is a good idea to flush your gutters with a garden hose after you have cleaned them. This will show how well the gutters are draining and will indicate any areas that are holding standing water, which contributes to many gutter problems.

The article further discusses what to use to repair your gutters and prevent damage from leaves and branches.

Check Foundations

Take some time on a clear, sunny day to walk around your home looking carefully around the edges.
. Rake away all debris and edible vegetation from the foundation.
. Seal up entry points to keep small animals from crawling under the house.
. Tuckpoint or seal foundation cracks. Mice can slip through space as thin as a dime.
. Inspect sill plates for dry rot or pest infestation.
. Secure crawlspace entrances.

Steel wool is highly recommended for plugging up holes against rats and mice
You’ve paid a lot of money for your home, and doing the right things at the right time will protect that investment for years to come.